A Recurring Cycle of Threats and De-escalation
Throughout his presidency, particularly during periods of heightened tension with Iran, former US President Donald Trump frequently employed a strategy characterized by severe threats followed by an apparent de-escalation or claims of impending diplomatic breakthroughs. This approach, which often involved issuing ultimatums and then retracting them, has been a notable feature of US-Iran relations during this era, prompting observers to scrutinize the consistency and effectiveness of such tactics.
A prominent example occurred early in a significant conflict, roughly a month into hostilities. President Trump issued a stark warning on April 7, stating that if Iran did not immediately reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz, "a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again." This threat, accompanied by a tight deadline, reportedly caused alarm in Washington and various Middle Eastern capitals. However, as the deadline approached, Trump ultimately rescinded the threat, announcing a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan.
This incident marked the beginning of a discernible pattern: President Trump would escalate rhetoric, often impacting global markets, only to pull back at the last moment. This strategy appeared to be aimed at influencing negotiations, though its impact on Iranian policy remained a subject of debate. On a recent Monday, Trump reiterated that negotiations were nearing a resolution, once more presenting what he termed "duplicitous" Iran with "one last chance" to reach an agreement or face severe consequences. Conversely, Tehran consistently denied any direct talks with the US, acknowledging only discussions with Oman regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway whose closure had significantly disrupted global energy markets.
As a prolonged conflict entered its twenty-third week, with no clear end in sight, both Washington and Tehran found themselves increasingly entrenched, with additional complexities influencing the conflict's trajectory. This recurring dynamic raises questions about the frequency of Trump's "one last chance" pronouncements and his assertions of an impending deal.
Instances of Threatened Attacks and Subsequent Retractions
Since the initial joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28, there have been multiple occasions where President Trump threatened significant military action but did not follow through:
- March: Less than a month into the conflict, Trump threatened to strike Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. Two days later, he postponed these strikes for five days, citing "progress" in talks. As this delayed deadline approached on March 26, he again deferred the strikes for another 10 days, claiming Iran had requested the extension.
- April: The April 7 threat of a "whole civilization" perishing was followed by Trump calling off the strikes and announcing a two-week ceasefire, intended to provide Iran an opportunity for a peace agreement. When no deal materialized, and after threatening to strike Iran "harder," Trump declared an indefinite ceasefire on April 21, attributing this decision to requests from Pakistani mediators.
- May: With diplomatic efforts stalled, Trump renewed threats on May 17, stating that "nothing will be left" of Iran if a deal wasn't struck. The following day, however, he informed reporters he had decided to "put it off for a little while, hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while, because we’ve had very big discussions with Iran." By May 27, US strikes resumed after negotiations faltered once more.
- June: On June 11, following two days of reciprocal strikes, Trump threatened the US would assume "total control" of Iran's oil and gas industries. Yet, hours later, he posted on social media about a breakthrough in negotiations, canceling the attacks. On June 17, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between the US and Iran, establishing a ceasefire and a 60-day period for peace negotiations. This agreement quickly unraveled due to significant disagreements over its terms, particularly regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a resumption of escalating strikes.
- July-August: On July 27, Trump halted strikes, claiming that "perimeters of a deal" had been agreed upon, while also asserting that Washington was "locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II." On a recent Monday, Trump again informed reporters that negotiations were close to concluding the war, warning Iran that this was its "last chance before decapitation." This latest threat had not been acted upon by the time of this report. Iran continued to deny direct talks with the US, though analysts suggested indirect discussions via mediators might be occurring.
Claims of an Imminent Iran Peace Deal
President Trump frequently asserted that Iran was "desperate" for a deal or that an agreement was imminent since the conflict began:
- March: Two days after the initial attacks on February 28, Trump conceded that the operation might take longer than initially projected, stating, "We projected four to five weeks [to end Iran war], but we can go far longer than that." On March 9, he shifted course, telling CBS that "the war is very complete, pretty much," and that the US military operation was "way ahead of schedule." Later that day, he changed his stance again, declaring the war "both complete and just beginning," and adding, "We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough." On March 23, Trump told reporters that "major points of agreement, I would say – almost all points of agreement" had been reached with Iran, a claim Tehran denied. He reiterated two days later that Iran desperately wanted a deal, and the following day, informed a cabinet meeting that Iran was "begging to make a deal."
- April: On April 7, Trump once more claimed Washington was "very close to a deal" with Iran, before issuing his "whole civilization" threat and subsequently announcing a ceasefire. Throughout April, Trump repeatedly stated that the war was effectively over, despite its continuation. He made various claims, including that Iran had "agreed to everything," that a deal would be reached "in the next day or two," and that there were "not too many significant differences" between the US and Iranian positions.
- May: On May 23, Trump indicated that the administration was "getting a lot closer" to a deal, which was "largely negotiated, [and] subject to finalization."
- June: On June 8, Trump called for "total victory" within two weeks and claimed Iran was "willing to give us everything." However, no peace deal materialized, and the conflict reignited in July.
- August: On the recent Monday, Trump again told reporters that Iran was "desperate" for a deal and issued a warning that Tehran had "one last chance" before facing "decapitation" to reach an agreement. Iran maintained its denial of direct talks with the US, stating its only discussions were with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz.